From the ISET Economist news (http://www.iset.ge/news/?s=survival&lang=en)
By Nino Mosiashvili
The conclusion of the Association Agreement (AA) with the European Union was euphorically acclaimed by Georgian media as well as political and economic decision makers. Part of the AA is the Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA). The DCFTA is intended to liberalize trade between Georgia and the EU by lowering tariffs and reducing non-tariff barriers. For agriculture, the most relevant changes relate to food safety (bacterial contaminants, pesticides, inspection, and labeling) as well as animal and plant health (phytosanitation). For the manufacturing sector, the removal of so-called “technical barriers to trade” is similarly important, with the goal being to prevent the usage of technical standards as a means to protect domestic markets from foreign competition. “If regulations are set arbitrarily, they could be used as an excuse for protectionism”, states the World Trade Organization on its homepage.
It is clear that all these agreements require unilateral adjustment of Georgian regulations to European standards. Georgia is economically too small to impose its preferences on Europe. This is stated quite frankly in the AA, when it says that it aims to “support the efforts of Georgia to develop its economic potential via international cooperation, also through the approximation of its legislation to that of the European Union”.
Whether these unilateral adjustments are beneficial for Georgia is not generally clear. European regulations do not necessarily reflect “best international practice”. In democracies, laws and regulations come about through the lobbying efforts of political interest groups much more than through rational planning. In the future, internal political decisions made in the European Union will be relevant for Georgia much more than they were previously, and it will be more difficult to pursue policies tailored to the specific situation of Georgia.
Yet Georgia hopes that the convergence to European standards will make it easier for Georgian firms to access the European market. Most critical in this respect is Georgian agriculture, as it is the sector employing the bulk of the Georgian labor force, while it is at the same time dramatically lagging behind European productivity levels. In 2013, Georgia’s agriculture accounted for only 9.3% of the Georgian gross domestic product but employed about half of the labor force. Thus, one of the benchmarks for evaluating the usefulness of the DCFTA will be its impact on Georgian agriculture.
THROWN INTO THE WATER – WILL IT SWIM?
The impacts of the DCFTA for Georgia were assessed in a report with the lengthy title Trade Sustainability Impact Assessment in support of negotiations of a DCFTA between the EU and Georgia and the Republic of Moldova. It was written by a consortium consisting of the Dutch consulting company Ecorys and the The Center for Social and Economic Research (CASE), a Warsaw-based think tank. On a broad level, the report estimates that due to trade liberalization with the EU the national income of Georgia will increase by 291.9 million euro in the long run, corresponding to a GDP growth of 4.3%. This goes along with an increase in Georgian exports and imports by 12% and 7.5%, respectively, leading to an improvement of the Georgian trade balance. But what about agriculture?
According to the study, the DCFTA will have different effects on different agricultural products, and the overall picture is very ambivalent. The output of some product categories will increase, namely vegetable oils and fats (+6.7%), vegetables, fruits, nuts, and oilseeds(+3.4%), and animal products (+3.1%), while for many other products, the output is expected to shrink, e.g. livestock and meat products (-14.8%), other processed foods (-8.8%),beverages and tobacco (-4.0%), sugar (-2.4%), and other crops (-2.0%). The report attributes the increases to reductions of EU tariffs on Georgian exports and the decreases to the reduction of Georgian tariffs on goods imported from the EU. These numbers, if they say something about the true developments, suggest that parts of Georgia’s agricultural sector will get under severe pressure due to increased competition with European producers.
ECONOMIC DARWINISM
What are the implications for Georgian agricultural policy? Some of the producers will benefit from the integration into the European market, as they can stand the pressure and even expand in this highly competitive environment. Other producers are likely to run into essentially insoluble problems. One particularly beneficial category in this respect is vegetables, fruits, nuts, and oilseeds, because some of the products in that category (e.g. hazelnuts) are labor intensive and serve niche markets. This implies that more people can be employed in the production of these goods, making the transformation to a modern, efficient agriculture less painful, and it means that competition is lower and margins are higher. If policy recognizes these advantages, producers in that category might become “national champions”.
Currently, vegetables, fruits and nuts are in Georgia primarily produced by small and medium sized farmers. Due to lack of greenhouses the production is seasonal. Yet farms can be consolidated and technical equipment can be upgraded. In the end, it will be relevant that Georgia has fundamental advantages in the production of goods in that category, namely clean soils, little usage of chemicals, a relatively large amount of available land for cultivation, and a long tradition in vegetable and fruit production.
Moreover, about half of Georgia’s current export of vegetables, fruits, and nuts already goes to the EU, which means that Georgian producers already have “a foot in the door”. Currently, the exports almost entirely consist of hazelnuts (there are no tariffs, as hazelnuts are already covered by the GSP+ regime, and hazelnuts easily satisfy sanitary and phyto-sanitary standards). Thus, while the DCFTA may not change Georgia’s hazelnuts export to the EU significantly, there may be other niche products in this category, like berries and other kinds of nuts, which may benefit from the DCFTA, for example through adjustments of Georgian regulations regarding product packaging.
It will be important that policy will subscribe to what one might call “Economic Darwinism” – do not try to keep those producers alive that are incapable of surviving, but instead create good circumstances for those that have a future in Georgia.
The participation of Alliances Lesser Caucasus Programme at DCED Global Seminar was highly appreciated and named within the top 3 seasons of the event by the attended audience. The seminar on the Standards for Results Measurement was hosted by DCED in Bangkok from 14 to 16 March 2016.
Women's economic empowerment, assessing attribution, measuring job creation, and using results information to manage programmes – were the main topics of presentations and discussions featured on the seminar. 130 participants from 38 countries, representing 52 organizations, field programmes and donor agencies gathered for the information exchange, for deepening understanding of DCED standards and for participating in plenary discussions on cutting edge themes.
The full agenda, presentations with relevant links and final summary report are available on the following link: DCED Seminar2016
ALCP photo won in the photo competition on Private Sector Development announced by DCED. Photo is taken in programme financed Wool Collecting Center and it was listed among 5 winners in condition of high competition. Winning photo will be displayed on new DCED website, visited by more than 60,000 unique users per year, and materials printed for high-profile events and publications. It will also be shown at the DCED Global Seminal in Bangkok.
After months of intensive construction work and four and a half years of multi-stakeholder advocacy the first Bio Security Point on the AMR has been opened. By the next transhumance season spring 2016, the country will have proper infrastructure for ensuring systematic health control of the livestock in place.
The event was attended by the Regional Director for Swiss Cooperation Office for the South Caucasus, by the Deputy Minister of Agriculture, the Head of the National Food Agency, the Governor and Gamgebelies of Kvemo Kartli region and the representatives of private and non-governmental sector. The event was widely covered by the national media.
Posted by Helen Bradbury: Team Leader, Alliances Lesser Caucasus Programme
ALCP has been featured on BEAM Exchange. See the story below.
Rural farmers can only grow their income when they have access to the drugs and veterinary services to keep their animals healthy and growing too. Alliances has partnered with a national veterinary inputs supply company to improve access to drugs, information and vet services for poor farmers in rural Georgia. There are strong signs competitors are seeking to replicate the model, which is also scaling up nationally and in neighbouring countries.
The challenge
Over 2 million people in rural Georgia rely on subsistence farming, typically owning less than one hectare of land. SDC has been funding a series of programmes in Southern Georgia since 2008 to improve the livelihoods of livestock farmers.
During initial surveys, Alliances learned that less than 10 per cent of farmers were accessing veterinary drugs or services in their community, in rural vet pharmacies mainly self-stocked from trips to Tbilisi. Others bought drugs when travelling to the capital. In the rural vet pharmacies a limited range of often improperly stored drugs were sold at high prices due to the resultant transaction costs. Local advice was minimal, unavailable or out of date. This had led to a lack of farmer trust in local veterinary products and services and unwillingness to invest.
Suppliers had failed to grasp the market potential of developing rural distribution, lacking both the information and capital to do so. The uncertainty about whether farmers would buy their products meant the perceived risk held suppliers back from making the first move.
Last week, NFA officials met with 19 private sector representatives from dairy and meat sectors in Akhaltsikhe, continuing a series of the meetings held in KK and AJ on new FS&H regulations. Key issues, which could restrict market access, such as form #2 requirements in meat sector and HACCP for dairy sector, were discussed.
The heavy rain and strong wind in Ajara last week saw the DRRWG hotlines have been flooded with calls in Kobuleti, Khelvachauri, Keda, Shuakhevi and Khulo municipalities. From Wednesday morning till Saturday night (November 11th-14th), the Government of Ajara and all five municipalities declared a state of emergency and announced the DRR WG hotline number on Ajara TV and online for the farmers seeking help. Municipal DRR WG members, along with a geologist and a representative from the Road Department, formed emergency response groups in each municipality to immediately respond to calls.
